Existing Building Decarbonization Roadmap for Unincorporated San Mateo County

The San Mateo County Sustainability Department is seeking proposals from qualified consultants to assist in developing an Existing Building Decarbonization Roadmap for unincorporated San Mateo County communities. This project will support goals of the County’s Community Climate Action Plan (CCAP).

Formed in 2014 as a part of the County Executive’s Office, the San Mateo County Sustainability Department strives to improve the sustainability of the County’s operations and the greater community through work that is designed to bring solutions today while solving for tomorrow. The Department has programs to help the county both fight and prepare for climate change, ensure clean energy, water, and air, and conserve resources for future generations through waste reduction.

The Community Climate Action Plan (CCAP) is a strategic guide to help unincorporated San Mateo County in preparing for climate risks and creating impactful greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions. CCAP outlines priority actions to achieve a 45% reduction of GHG emissions over 1990 levels by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2040. Buildings are one of the largest contributors to GHG emissions in unincorporated areas of the County. These emissions stem primarily from the use of natural gas in residential and commercial buildings. Transitioning away from natural gas in existing buildings will require electric replacements for existing equipment when it reaches the end of its useful life. CCAP has a goal to electrify 16% of existing buildings by 2030 and 100% of existing buildings by 2040.

The aim of this project is to:

• Develop a detailed and locally specific analysis of the residential and commercial building stock in unincorporated San Mateo County, leveraging existing data and regional analyses, to inform priority actions for an equitable transition.
• Identify a set of key actions the County can implement within the next five years to help meet CCAP greenhouse gas reduction goals for unincorporated County, with a focus on residential buildings* recognizing that a just transition requires prioritization of vulnerable communities so they are not left behind.
• Develop “Community Decarbonization Profiles” for each major unincorporated area that considers its unique characteristics, and target recommendations for each. These recommendations should prioritize vulnerable and historically under resourced populations.

*Note: The County anticipates that the initial recommendations will focus on residential buildings to best support a just transition in the community, and because that is the more common building type in unincorporated. However, if the consultant analysis shows that the County can be more impactful by focusing on other building types, the recommendations should align with the data.

Unincorporated San Mateo County consists of approximately 309 square miles, covering disparate geographically separated areas that vary distinctly in character. Unincorporated areas include undeveloped rural areas, significant active and protected agriculture, low-density rural and/or coastal communities such as King’s Mountain, La Honda, and Pescadero, more urbanized coastal communities such as El Granada, Montara and Moss Beach, low-density bayside communities including Ladera and Los Trancos Woods, suburban scale bayside communities such as Emerald Lake Hills and West Menlo Park, and denser urban communities, largely consisting of unincorporated areas wholly surrounded by incorporated cities, such as North Fair Oaks, unincorporated Colma, Broadmoor and Devonshire.

The unincorporated areas of San Mateo County exhibit distinct demographic and socioeconomic characteristics compared to the county as a whole. The unincorporated population is approximately 62,500 individuals in 20,500 households. The average household income in the unincorporated areas is $150,000, lower than the countywide median of $175,000. The unincorporated communities of North Fair Oaks, the South Coast communities such as Pescadero, and some of the midcoast communities such as Moss Beach and Princeton are among the lower-income or resource-constrained areas, while many of the Bayside unincorporated communities are on the wealthy to very wealthy side of the spectrum.

Many unincorporated residents in rural areas rely on propane rather than natural gas. There is less incentive for these residents to electrify, and electrification in these areas does not have the same greenhouse gas reduction impact as areas that rely on gas infrastructure. Other communities have higher proportions of renter populations, which face unique barriers to electrification as well as split incentive issues. This is the type of local context the project analysis should account for.

The cost of safely maintaining California’s gas system is set to escalate in the coming years while at the same time there is an expected decline in demand as the state transitions away from fossil fuels to meet climate goals. The result will be higher costs spread across fewer customers, leading to higher gas bills for those who do not have the means to be early adopters. A key rationale for this project is to support a just transition for unincorporated communities. The final report – or “Roadmap” – should outline actions the County should take to support those communities who would otherwise be left behind.